Japan’s Newspaper Circulation Plunges to 20.8 Million, with the Rate of Decline Doubling Over the Past Decade — Loss of Timely News Reporting and the Collapse of a Business Model Dependent on “Oshigami” (Excess Newspaper Deliveries)

The undelivered newspapers shown in the photo are usually sent to the paper mill without being unwrapped.

By Tetsuya Kuroyabu

As of August 2026, the total ABC circulation of daily newspapers in Japan was about 20.8 million copies (20,804,855 copies). This was a decrease of about 1.45 million copies (1,450,697 copies) compared with the same month of the previous year.

ABC circulation figures are based on the number of newspapers supplied through the distribution system. They do not necessarily show how many copies are actually sold to readers.

These figures also include “oshigami,” or newspapers supplied to dealers in excess of actual sales demand. This practice places a financial burden on newspaper dealers. At the same time, it has helped newspaper companies increase their sales and advertising revenue.

If circulation continues to fall at the current rate, it will reach zero in about 14 years and four months. However, it is unlikely that Japanese newspaper companies will be able to maintain their print businesses for another 14 years. This is because the speed of the decline is increasing.

For example, in December 2016, the total ABC circulation of daily newspapers in Japan was about 37.8 million copies, including oshigami. At that time, circulation was falling by only about 730,000 copies a year.

Today, the annual decline is about twice as large. This clearly shows that the decline of Japan’s newspaper industry is accelerating.

In my view, the current business model based mainly on printed newspapers may survive for only another five to seven years.

However, newspaper companies may still survive by moving from print to digital newspapers and reducing the size of their businesses. Some may continue operating as small or medium-sized companies.

One reason Japanese newspapers have been slow to move into digital publishing is their traditional home delivery system. For many years, this system allowed newspaper companies to earn high profits.

The oshigami practice was also closely connected to this system. By supplying newspapers beyond actual reader demand, newspaper companies were able to increase their circulation figures and earn more money from newspaper sales and advertising.

This business structure continued for many years.There is little doubt that Japanese newspapers will move further toward digital publishing. However, language is a major problem.

One reason major American newspapers have had some success with digital subscriptions is that they publish in English. English allows them to attract readers from around the world.

Japanese newspapers face a different situation.Because they publish mainly in Japanese, their potential readership is largely limited to Japan. Even if they expand their digital services, it will be difficult to attract large numbers of paying readers from other countries.

As a result, Japanese newspaper companies face two serious problems: the rapid decline of printed newspapers and the limited size of the market for Japanese-language digital news.

These problems raise serious questions about the future of Japan’s newspaper industry.Printed newspapers also have a serious problem with speed.

In the recent Brazilian presidential election, I learned the results on the internet at around 10 a.m. Japan time. However, Japanese newspapers did not report the results until the evening. Newspapers without evening editions reported them the following day. This shows that printed newspapers can no longer provide news as quickly as the internet. Speed is one of the most important roles of journalism.